Randy Demmer (R) May Be Ahead in #MN01 @Redstate

As more light gets shone on the tax-and-spend liberal voting record of Tim Walz, Randy Demmer looks better and better to people in Minnesota’s CD 1.

Walz talks the fiscal conservative, gun rights game back home in the district, but get him in DC and he’s hanging on Nancy Pelosi’s skirt like any other liberal.

It’s time to get these two-faced Democrats out and get solid conservatives in. We know where Randy Demmer stands. Tim Walz? Not so much.

Amplify’d from www.redstate.com

Demmer (R) Moves Within the MOE in MN CD 1

The first poll in MN CD 1 has come out and it is quite a surprise.  SurveyUSA has Walz (D) at 47% and challenger Randy Demmer (R) at 42%, which puts the two of them within the 4.1% margin of error.  That would constitute a toss-up status.  It would also belie the conventional wisdom in Minnesota that the Tea Party and conservative groundswell is not happening here.  What’s even more astounding is the numbers they are using for this district.  When I first looked into the metrics of the sampling, I had to laugh out loud.  While it would still be a rather close race, Demmer should be in the lead given the demographics and skewed sampling data. 

SurveyUSA decided to use RBA (Registration Based Sampling) for this poll instead of Random Digit Dialing(RDD), such as that used by Rasmussen.  The theory behind this kind of polling is by measuring already established population metrics, like the number of registered Republicans, or Democrats, or independent voters, they can more accurately assess the likelihood of a candidate winning.  Since people, in normal times, tend to identify with one of those categories, it is a stable way to measure public opinion.  In Normal Times!!!

Instead of randomly  selecting people and collecting accurate raw data to process, these pollsters are taking old registration numbers, presuming they are accurate, picking specific numbers of affiliated voters, and calling them until someone answers and gives them the data they want.  We don’t really know what the voters of southern Minnesota believe, but we do know what a few Republicans, a few independents, and a whole lot of Democrats believe.

This doesn’t really give Walz and the Democrats much hope.  Demmer is still within the margin of error even given the skewed metrics of the poll.

I cry DOOM!!!

Read more at www.redstate.com


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